A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
