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It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him for missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or a cause for the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a rather hard query to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.